Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), which provides real-time mapping and prediction of tropical cyclone windfields worldwide and is co-sponsored by Aon Benfield, today releases its pre-season outlook to coincide with the start of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. The outlook anticipates Atlantic basin and U.S. landfalling hurricane activity being 25% above the long-term (1950-2010) norm.
TSR, part of Aon Benfield Research’s academic and industry collaboration, maintains its April forecast for a moderately active hurricane season. The pre-season outlook includes:
– A 55% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season; a 29% probability of a near-normal season, and only a 16% chance of a below-normal season.
-14 tropical storms including eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes. This compares to long-term norms of 11, six and three respectively.
For U.S. landfalling activity, TSR forecasts:
– A 59% probability of above-normal U.S. landfalling hurricane activity; a 26% likelihood of a near-normal season, and only a 15% chance of a below-normal season.
– Four tropical storm strikes on the U.S., including two hurricanes. This compares to long-term norms of three and 1.5 respectively.
Three main climate factors will determine the level of hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. Occurring in August and September, these are the speed of trade winds over the tropical North Atlantic, sea temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic, and the sign and strength of El Niño Southern Oscillation. U.S. landfalling hurricane activity is influenced by July tropospheric wind patterns over the North Atlantic and U.S, and by the level of hurricane activity occurring at sea.
Professor Mark Saunders at Tropical Storm Risk, said: “At present all main climate indicators point to the 2011 hurricane season being above-norm but less active for basin activity than 2010, and more active for U.S. landfalling activity than 2010. If a major hurricane does not strike the U.S. in 2011 it will be the first occasion going back to at least 1900 where six consecutive years have passed without such an event.”
TSR’s next hurricane forecast will be issued on 6 June. Professor Mark Saunders will also be revealing new technology to help (re)insurers manage real-time hurricane risks at an expose of valuable data for insurance and reinsurance in the Lloyd’s Old Library on the 1 June (hosted by the Lighthill Risk Network).
Source : Aon Benfield
