The newly released RMS China Typhoon Model, covering both mainland China and Hong Kong, delivers significant advancements in quantifying typhoon-related flood risk.
Flood is a key driver of loss in typhoon events, and some of China’s most economically developed areas along its east coast are at risk from both typhoon wind and flood impacts. With the release of this model, companies are now able to quantify the risk from both typhoon and earthquake events, following the release of the RMS China Earthquake Model in 2007.
According to the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), there have been approximately nine typhoon landfalls on average each year since 1950. Quantifying the risk of wind and related flood loss is a key concern for insurers and reinsurers looking to increase market penetration in China, where these losses are both covered by fire policies. “Although wind and flood damage are driven by the same typhoon events, the new model allows companies to quantify the losses independently,” said Matthew Grant, global head of client development at RMS. “By gaining a stronger grasp of what’s driving the loss from typhoons, companies will be able to select risks more confidently and capitalize on opportunities in this rapidly emerging market.”
The new model is based on an event set of over 24,500 storms derived from the CMA’s historical catalogue of storms from 1945 to 2009. Key historical events are incorporated, including the Super Typhoon Saomai, which affected the east coast of China in 2006, killing over 450 people and causing $2.5 billion (2006 USD) of damage. This was a record-breaking event and the most severe landfall typhoon in China since 1949.
In developing the model, RMS collaborated with the National Meteorological Center (NMC), and Branch of CMA, Beijing Normal University (BNU), as well as with Prof. Johnny Chan at City University of Hong Kong.
“We have leveraged our long-standing relationships with an extensive network of consultants and government agencies in China to validate the wealth of scientific information in the new model,” said Stefan Beine, senior director at RMS.
Available as part of the China typhoon release, the Hong Kong model is now enhanced by a new and more complete event set, new windfield models and the inclusion of inland flood modelling. Each component explicitly addresses Hong Kong’s unique topography and land use.
While no major event has impacted Hong Kong recently, additional recorded wind data from the CMA and the Hong Kong Observatory were incorporated to update the windfield model.
The China Typhoon Model was released as part of version 11.0 of the RiskLink and RiskBrowser modelling platforms that are used throughout the insurance and reinsurance industry.
Source : RMS
